UKRAINE UPDATE – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  Look, everyone is now taking this very seriously.  There is combat in the Ukraine between Ukrainian nationalists and factions loyal to Russia.  Several people have been killed in military action at a Ukrainian military base, although facts are muddled. 

What next?  Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, two superb defense analysts, probe Putin's intentions at the Daily Beast: 

Crimea is in Moscow’s hands. Deadly fighting has broken out in parts of Eastern Ukraine. And now there are signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have picked his next targets: First a small breakaway state in Moldova, west of Ukraine, where thousands of Moscow’s troops are already stationed; then its close neighbor Odessa, Ukraine’s third-largest city and its largest remaining port, where pro-Russian and pro-government groups are tangling. If forces loyal to Putin can successfully disrupt Odessa, it could effectively cut the county of Ukraine in two.

A firefight between pro-Russian forces and Ukrainian troops left three dead and 13 wounded in the Black Sea port of Mariupol late on Wednesday. Officials and experts inside Ukraine are also becoming more and more concerned that weeks of unrest, likely spurred on by the Russian government, are increasing in frequency and scale in Transnistria, the autonomous region on the Ukraine-Moldova border where as many as 2,500 Russian peacekeepers are stationed. Protests and counter-protests have also spread to Odessa—a city of over 1 million that’s less than 50 miles from Transnistria. And that’s stoking fears of a new front opening in the raging battle between the Ukrainian government in Kiev and pro-Russian forces operating all over eastern and now southern Ukraine. If Transnistria moves into Putin’s camp, Odessa could well follow.

Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, told The Daily Beast he has seen "a level of activity by the Russians" in Moldovan Transnistria that he said was similar to Russian military and paramilitary movements before Russia's annexation of Crimea. He said the Russian troop movements "fit the profile for the pre-deployment of additional special forces and intelligence units that engage in provocation and sabotage.”

COMMENT:  This isn't alarmism.  We don't actually know what's in Putin's mind.  He's a shrewd, sophisticated international politician, unlike President Hope 'n' Change.  He may ease back for a time, only to forge forward later, responding to some trumped-up "provocation" inside Ukraine. 

A British analyst worried yesterday that this could be the start of the Third World War.  I really don't think so.  No one wants it.  No one would benefit.  No one really wanted the other two either.

April 17,  2014